īret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the Publishing Guidelines. On the date of publication, Bret Kenwell held a long position in NVDA and AMD. įor now, I’d rather be long the premiere chipmakers than Intel. Further, in a single session, the technicals have gone from “actually pretty good” to “no thanks.”Ĭonversely, both AMD and Nvidia have solid technical setups as well. It lacks growth and momentum, two things I like when I’m investing in a business. Is INTC stock a better buy than Nvidia or AMD? No, not in my mind. Unfortunately for bulls, the technicals aren’t very attractive. Prior to Intel’s post-earnings decline, the stock was pushing over downtrend resistance (blue line), as well as the 10-week and 21-week moving averages. It’s also rotating below this month’s prior low, now near $48 at the time of this writing. However, the stock is breaking below these measures after a bearish post-earnings reaction. INTC stock was doing a great job riding the 200-week and 50-month moving averages higher. Just about every stock broke down at that point, so it’s hard to fault Intel. The exception is the coronavirus correction in early 2020. For the most part, Intel has done a pretty good job riding the 200-week moving average higher. But without another reason to buy the stock, the valuation alone isn’t enough of a catalyst.Ībove is a multi-year look at INTC stock via a weekly chart. While that’s a sizable sum, it’s still short of the company’s 2020 revenue figure of $77.87 billion.Īdmittedly, INTC stock is cheaper than AMD and Nvidia, trading at just 11.5x this year’s earnings. Third and lastly, even if Intel does generate 5.4% growth, it will mean $77.08 billion in revenue. For what it’s worth, current estimates call for roughly 13% revenue growth in 2023 for both companies, respectively. Second, it’s likely woefully short of what AMD and NVDA will do in the future. However, there’s a few problems with that.įirst, it’s an estimate several years into the future and is subject to being wrong. In 2023, estimates currently call for 5.4% growth. On the earnings front, that translates to an earnings decline of 9.6% and 7.7% in 20, respectively. If the company reports in-line results, it will translate to a 5.5% decline in sales this year and a 0.7% dip next year. In reality, consensus estimates have been pretty accurate for Intel. No “we’re doing so good we’re blowing away estimates and raising our guidance.” There’s just no excitement here and the stock’s 6.5% year-to-date loss highlights as much. While that estimate dipped to as low as $71 billion, it now sits at about $73.75 billion.īut do you see the problem? There’s no momentum. As a result, we’ve seen revenue expectations climb by billions of dollars over the last few quarters.įor Intel, analysts were actually too aggressive, which is a disaster for the stock price.Ĭoming into the year, analysts were expecting just over $75 billion in revenue for Intel this year. In both cases, analysts have been way too conservative.
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Both dominate INTC stock, which was up just 1.5% before earnings. Over the past year, AMD and Nvidia are up 35% and 90%, respectively. That hope hasn’t come to fruition though.